Forecasting Techniques in Crops

Introduction Reliable and timely forecasts provide important and useful input for proper, foresighted and informed planning, more so, in agriculture which is full of uncertainties. Agriculture now-adays has become highly input and cost intensive. Under the changed scenario today, forecasting of various aspects relating to agriculture are becoming essential. But in-spite of strong need for reliable and timely forecasts, the current status is far from satisfactory. For most of the sectors, there is no organized system of forecasting. The official forecasts (advance estimates) of major cereal and commercial crops are issued by Directorate of Economics and Statistics. Some work has been attempted in fisheries, livestock, market projections, etc. by various organizations but these are mostly at research stage. Details of forecasting techniques in crops is discussed here. In crops, production and attack of pests and diseases are the two major aspects which need attention. Forecasts of crop production before harvest are required for various policy decisions relating to storage, distribution, pricing, marketing, import-export, etc. Pests and diseases are one of the major causes of reduction in crop yield. Timely application of remedial measures may reduce the yield loss. For application of these measures one must have prior knowledge of the time and severity of the outbreak of pests and diseases. Forecasting system can help in this direction.